As stated in my previous post, Ma Ying-jeou, chairman of Taiwan's KMT party, is now in America on a ten day tour. At a breakfast talk in New York, Hizzonner discussed his own "Sunshine Policy":
...Ma's China position will be a balanced one, as he described it...[Ma] and his party will want to neither coddle Beijing or antagonize it, as the KMT leadership takes advantage of their newly established links with the Communist Party to restore cross-strait relations.
Dream on, Ma.
The China Post approves however, and further informs us that Ma will try to mimic South Korean President Roh's triangulation between friend and foe:
Ma Ying-jeou...is likely to project himself as a man who, if he wins the 2008 presidential election, will pursue a balanced policy between Washington and Beijing...
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It is unlikely that Ma will allow [himself] to be [as] lopsided towards the US as President Chen has been.
Chen, in the last two two years since the star of his second four-year term, has been even more aggressive in trying to work with Washington and Tokyo to forge a triangular military alliance against China. Unlike Chen, Ma will only want to develop a US relationship built on a mutually favorable basis, not targetting Beijing or any third party.
For if Ma adopts a stance completely leaning toward the US, it will damage any attempt by him to improve relations with Beijing. Reconciliation with the communist government is essential to Taiwan's security and economic interests.
Ah, Ma doesn't want to target Beijing. What a relief THAT must be for the communists. Wonder if they'll be generous enough to return the favor...
That's how Taiwan's presidential election of 2008 is shaping up. The main independence party will field a candidate who will, if elected, drive Washington nuts by "provoking" China with trivial independence-related symbolism. The KMT's candidate on the other hand, will anger Washington by portraying democratic America as the moral equivalent of communist China, and by spurning offers to upgrade Taiwan's defenses.
If Ma wins - and right now he IS the front runner - I wonder how America will react? Will it calculate that Taiwan is a vital interest, shrug, and take up the slack? Or will it decide that the new Chinese Vichy* is a peripheral interest, and wash its hands of the place?
It's my impression that some stern words from George Bush or the State Department in the future could tilt the Taiwanese electorate one way or the other.
But saying nothing IS, of course, another option. An option that helps Ma keep the lead.
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* Chinese Vichy? Finally, a name-rectification proposal the KMT can FULLY support!
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UPDATE (Apr 8/06): Michael Turton has some interesting observations regarding American reaction to Ma's recent trip stateside. He commented previously on it in the following posts as well:
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The DPP strategy should be to convince voters that:
1) China cannot be trusted at present and the PRC does not want anything other than annexation. The so-called status quo is currently being altered by China.
2) Ma would recklessly fall into China's trap of believing in this fantasy that meaningful compromise can be made. And he has no safeguards in place. Furthermore, the KMT has continued to this day to show disrespect for the principles of democracy and freedom. Ma is incapable of changing the anti-democratic traditions of KMT.
3) The best chance to preserve the status quo is for firm leadership in Taiwan that is not bullied by China. Preserving Democracy and freedom is paramount for the interests of Taiwanese and only carefully managed integration with the chinese economy can occur to preserve what Taiwan has fought for and achieved.
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Posted by: STOP George | March 22, 2006 at 11:39 AM