Been back in Taiwan for a while now, and I see Joe Hung at the China Post is still flogging that old hobbyhorse of his, the idea of a unified Chinese-Taiwanese commonwealth:
Lien Chan, honorary chairman of the Kuomintang . . . is an advocate of a Chinese confederation,* an idea similar to the Chinese commonwealth which alone may be endorsed by the United States, Japan and other world powers. All of them want the status quo between Taiwan and China. Their national interests will be hurt if Chinese reunification takes place as Beijing now wants. Neither do they want Taiwan to get too closely associated with China. If Taiwan remains a dominion within the Chinese commonwealth, they will be able to best safeguard their respective national interests.
[...]
Peaceful unification or reunification is not impossible, if the example of the British Commonwealth of Nations is followed. Just as Great Britain made Canada a dominion in 1867, the People's Republic of China can give Taiwan dominion status now in preparation for a full-fledged Chinese commonwealth. The People's Republic and the Republic of China in Taiwan may be united in the name of the Chinese nation. They will be equal in status and in no way subordinate to the other, albeit the People's Republic may be the ex-officio head of the commonwealth. A dominion is recognized as a separate state entitled to have separate representation in the United Nations and other world organizations, to appoint its own ambassadors and to conclude its own treaties. At the same time, it is not considered to stand in the same relation to the People's Republic as foreign countries.
How ironic that Hung should make these arguments as the terrible events of 8/8/08 unfold before the world's eyes. And by 8/8/08 I speak not of the Genocide Games, but of the war between Russia and Georgia. For you see, the Georgians followed Hung's advice to the letter: fifteen years ago they humbled themselves, humbled themselves before a giant neighbor and joined the Commonwealth of Independent States.
And where did THAT get them? Did it get them all those sweet gauzy promises as outlined in the Charter of the Commonwealth of Independent States?
No. It got them Russian land grabs in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, that's where.** Apparently the wisdom of Lao Tzu ain't all that it's cracked up to be.***
And so the question I pose is threefold: Which nation does autocratic China more closely resemble, democratic Britain or autocratic Russia? And, given that resemblance, can we expect the character of a Chinese Commonwealth to be more like Britain's . . . or Russia's? And finally, can we all agree that the fate of Georgia within Russia's Commonwealth of "Independent" States is a fate that Taiwan would do well to avoid?
I've tried to debunk Hung's dangerous dreams of a Chinese Commonwealth on previous occasions (here and here). But I must admit that the War of 8/8/08 discredits them far more persuasively than my own humble efforts ever could.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* About the only thing I know about confederations is how remarkably unstable they tend to be. Within short order, confederations tend to either dissolve into their component states or centralize into federations instead. Indeed, the lifetime of most confederacies appears to consist of a span of less than ten years.
Given the inequalities of power within Lien's proposed confederation, the smart money would be on future centralization, however. Once Taiwan raises the hopes of Chinese unificationists by joining a Chinese Confederacy it would be well nigh impossible for a Taiwanese president to approach Beijing and say, "Hey, we gave it our best, but this just isn't working out. We'd like to negotiate a peaceful separation."
And so we see that the KMT's Lien Chan advocates little more than a face-saving Taiwanese surrender, followed by progressive involuntary absorption into the Chinese Empire.
** Some background explaining Russian provocations prior to 8/8/08 can be found here and here. Could a similar scenario play out someday in Taiwan? If a breakaway Kinmen Island attempted to reunify with China, would Beijing be all that reluctant in sending PLA "peacekeepers"? In issuing the island's inhabitants Chinese passports? In escalating military attacks on Taiwanese waters or even Taiwan proper from Kinmen, all the while denying those attacks or perhaps insisting that the Kinmenese were the ones responsible?
And lastly, how severe would Chinese attacks have to be before Taiwan was goaded into a military response of its own?
*** Hung quotes Lao Tzu as follows:
"And if a small kingdom humbles itself before a great kingdom, it shall win over that great kingdom," he teaches. "Thus," he concludes, "the one humbles itself in order to attain, the other attains because it is humble. If the great kingdom has no further desire than to bring men together and to nourish them, the small kingdom will have no further desire than to enter the service of the other. But in order that both may have their desire, the great one must learn humility."
Hung's message to Taiwan is that Beijing is generous and humble. And therefore, Taiwan must capitulate.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UPDATE: Oh, THIS just keeps getting better. Russia demands that Georgia be demilitarized.
UPDATE #2: Take this Commonwealth and shove it -- President Saakashvili announces his intentions to take Georgia out of the Commonwealth of Independent States, and suggests other former Soviet Republics follow his lead. Hey, I'm sure Russia will be cool with that . . .
UPDATE #3: Why couldn't the Georgians have just let South Ossetia pass into Russian hands, if that was what the local population wanted? Certainly a question I've asked myself lately. Kat from Missouri explains how South Ossetia is sort of the Golan Heights of Georgia.
UPDATE #4: This is a few days old, but still worth the read if you've got the time. Who's Winning in Georgia and Who's Winning in Georgia #2.
UPDATE #5: A piece much more critical of Georgia.
UPDATE #6: And French sympathies are with . . . Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?
UPDATE #7: "China’s Communist rulers, while basking in the glow of their Olympics bash, are surely checking the tea leaves for what this might presage about U.S. support for another U.S. ally: the democratic Republic of China on Taiwan. If the U.S. will not stand up to North Korea, will not stand up to Iran, will not stand up to Russia, then where will the U.S. stand up? What are the real rules of this New World Order?" Yeah, that's gonna make me sleep better at night.
UPDATE (Aug 14/08): Where the Kosovo analogy breaks down.
Comments